The Age of Permanent Tension—ASEAN Walks the Geopolitical Tightrope
War is once again shaping the rhythm of global life. From Ukraine to Gaza, from Sudan to the South China Sea, conflict and coercion now drive economic realignment. Analysts increasingly describe the 2020s not as the age of artificial intelligence, but as the age of permanent tension—an era in which war, sanctions, and disinformation have become legitimate instruments of diplomacy.
According to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, 61 interstate conflicts remained active in 2024—the highest tally since 1945. The World Economic Forum’s 2025 Global Risks Report ranks “interstate conflict” as the top short-term risk, ahead even of climate change and cyber threats.
Wars Without Borders
Modern conflicts rarely involve open land grabs. Instead, they unfold through economic blockades, cyber sabotage, and logistical disruption. Attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure sent oil above US$100 a barrel, while turmoil in the Red Sea pushed global shipping costs up by 20% in early 2025.
For developing economies, such crises are no abstraction. According to the IMF, wars and sanctions shave an average of two percentage points off growth each year and add 1.3 points to inflation. The global economy, already fragile, is learning to live with the constant hum of conflict.
ASEAN’s Fragile Calm
For decades, Southeast Asia has prided itself on being the world’s most stable developing region. That calm is eroding. The South China Sea—through which 60% of world trade and 30% of energy shipments pass—has become a strategic flashpoint.
ASEAN seeks to preserve neutrality, yet pressure from China and the United States is growing. Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia each boosted defense budgets by over 12% in 2024, the steepest rise in ten years. New pacts such as AUKUS and the Quad have redrawn the region’s security map, forcing ASEAN to navigate great-power politics without becoming anyone’s proxy.
From Tanks to Technology
Power now flows less from fleets and missiles than from data, algorithms, and influence. Cyberattacks on Southeast Asian government systems jumped 38% in 2024, targeting energy grids, banks, and telecom networks.
In response, Singapore has built a National AI Security Centre, while Malaysia and Thailand are tightening cross-sector cybersecurity rules. Yet digital asymmetries persist, leaving several member states as soft targets in an emerging AI-driven cold war.
The Economics of Uncertainty
Tensions are also rewriting ASEAN’s economic geography. As firms shift production out of China, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia have become magnets for investment—but at the cost of deeper exposure to supply-chain fragility.
Currency pressures and widening fiscal gaps are mounting. The World Bank expects ASEAN’s growth to slow from 4.7% in 2023 to 4.3% by 2025, weighed down by global uncertainty and high interest rates. The region’s open economies are feeling the price of global disunity.
Balancing in a Divided World
The central question for ASEAN is stark: can neutrality survive when every superpower demands allegiance?
With 680 million people and a US$4trn economy, the bloc wields real weight—if it can translate its stability into strategic influence. Its quiet diplomacy, often dismissed as cautious, may yet prove its greatest strength.
In this age of permanent tension, true power belongs not to the loudest or the most heavily armed, but to those who can hold their balance while the world tilts. And among mistrustful giants, ASEAN—measured, patient, and unaligned—remains one of the few voices still able to speak to all sides, without firing a single shot. 💣
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